WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST • July 13 – July 20, 2026
TLDR
- Bitcoin gained 2.70% this week.
- VIX rose 9.38% to 18.77.
- $76M net flowed into BTC ETFs.
- S&P 500 fell 0.77% to 7,457.69.
- Key risk level is $63,995 for long liquidation.
Weekly Market Performance
| Asset | Week Open | Week Close | Weekly % | 1M % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Crypto Market Cap | $2.16T | $2.19T | +1.37% | — |
| S&P 500 | 7,515.34 | 7,457.69 | -0.77% | -0.57% |
| Dow Jones | 52,498.64 | 52,146.42 | -0.67% | +1.13% |
| Nasdaq | 25,873.18 | 25,520.24 | -1.36% | -3.76% |
| VIX | 17.16 | 18.77 | +9.38% | +14.45% |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $62,239 | $63,917 | +2.70% | -0.50% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $1,774 | $1,847 | +4.16% | +6.21% |
Macro Highlights
The US launched its ninth consecutive night of strikes against Iran while Iran retaliated with ballistic missile attacks on US targets in Kuwait, Jordan, and Syria, with the US military now reporting 17 personnel killed since the conflict began. Tensions over the Strait of Hormuz have escalated significantly, with reports of damaged oil tankers and threats to shipping, causing oil prices to surge to their highest level since June. The situation remains volatile, with Iran declaring that it is suspending its commitments under the interim peace deal. (Bloomberg)
Brent crude has breached $90 per barrel as the conflict between the US and Iran escalates. (CNBC)
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has vowed to end five years of high inflation in his first congressional testimony. Warsh stated that the Fed will take a more aggressive approach to monetary policy to bring inflation back under control. The comments have been seen as a hawkish signal, with markets pricing in a higher likelihood of interest rate hikes. (Nasdaq)
Crypto Highlights
Allbridge has paused its cross-chain bridge after suffering an exploit that resulted in a loss of $1.65M, with the attacker allegedly utilizing a flash loan and rapid swaps to manipulate the bridge’s stablecoin exchange rate. The pause is currently in effect as the company investigates the incident and works to prevent similar exploits in the future.
Cardano has activated the van Rossem hard fork, an upgrade that reduces smart contract execution costs, according to the company’s announcement, and lays the groundwork for Ouroboros Leios, a major scalability upgrade expected later this year. This upgrade is a key step in Cardano’s development, as it aims to improve the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of its smart contract platform.
Japanese logistics firm AZ COM Maruwa is planning to rollout the JPYC stablecoin to pay thousands of its transportation contractors, allowing them to receive digital yen payments more frequently and quickly, according to the company’s plans.
FTX, through the FTX Recovery Trust, is set to distribute approximately $900 million to creditors in its fifth payment round, bringing the total distribution to about $10 billion since the company filed for bankruptcy in November 2022.
BTC Cost Basis Distribution and Liquidation Exposure
US Spot ETF Flows
| Fund | Weekly Net Flow | Cumulative Inflow | AUM |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC Spot ETF | +$75.7M | +$51,370.7M | $77.74B |
| ETH Spot ETF | +$105.4M | +$11,078.9M | $9.97B |
| SOL Spot ETF | +$0.9M | +$1,137.2M | $0.87B |
Spot ETF Daily Flows — BTC, ETH & SOL
ANALYST INTERPRETATION
1. Positioning & Derivatives Read
The data shows institutional buyers are increasingly bullish on crypto, with $76M and $105M net flows into BTC and ETH ETFs, respectively. The cumulative AUM for BTC ETFs now stands at $77.7B, with a weekly net flow of $76M. The long vs short liquidation split is not available, but the week-end long/short ratio indicates a bullish bias. Given the recent price action and ETF flows, the market is over-extended on the long side, with buyers more exposed going into next week. The $105M net flow into ETH ETFs and $1M net flow into SOL ETFs suggest a broader appetite for crypto assets.
2. Key Risks & Levels for Next Week (BTC)
Long Liquidation Cascade: The largest cost basis cluster below spot sits at $63,995 with 94110.96 BTC. A breach pushes $3145.2M in open longs underwater and into the highest liquidation exposure band in the heatmap. Watch for spot volume accelerating on the way down, not after — that’s the tell.
Short Squeeze Risk: The top supply cluster above current price is at $67,452 with 294336.10 BTC, representing a significant resistance level. If this level is breached, $1803.5M in short positions could be squeezed, leading to a rapid price increase. Monitor options skew shifting and spot volume surging as indicators of this risk playing out.
Support Breach: The cost basis distribution shows a significant supply cluster at $61,920 with 117418.15 BTC. If this level is breached, it could lead to a cascade of long liquidations, accelerating the price decline. Look for ETF flow direction and liquidation rate accelerating as signs of this risk unfolding.
Weekly Market Wrap
This week saw a 2.70% gain in Bitcoin and 4.16% rise in Ethereum despite a 0.77% decline in the S&P 500. This disconnect was largely driven by the escalating US-Iran tensions, which led to a surge in oil prices and raised concerns about inflation and interest rates, with Fed Governor Waller warning that ‘hot’ inflation could trigger a rate rise. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq also edged lower, with declines of 0.67% and 1.36%, respectively, as investors weighed the implications of rising oil prices and improving economic data.
The macroeconomic landscape was marked by significant events, including the US inflation rate falling to 3.5% in June, below expectations, and China posting its slowest quarterly growth since 2022. The VIX, a measure of market volatility, rose 9.38% to 18.77, indicating increased uncertainty among investors. The US-Iran conflict and its potential impact on oil prices and inflation were major drivers of market sentiment, with President Trump’s proposal of a 20% toll on cargo through the Strait of Hormuz adding to the tensions. The improving economic data, including China’s exports rising at their fastest pace since 2021, was offset by concerns about inflation and interest rates, leading to a mixed performance in major economies.
In the crypto market, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices were driven by a combination of factors, including regulatory developments, institutional investment, and on-chain activity. The Cardano network’s activation of the van Rossem hard fork, which reduces smart contract execution costs, was a notable event, as was the pause of the Allbridge cross-chain bridge due to a $1.65M exploit. The Japanese logistics company’s plan to rollout the JPYC stablecoin to pay thousands of drivers also highlighted the growing adoption of cryptocurrencies in mainstream industries. Additionally, US agencies’ failure to meet the GENIUS Act’s one-year deadline for issuing final stablecoin regulations added to the regulatory uncertainty in the crypto space.
